Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Market research firm DFC Intelligence predicts the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This forecast positions the Switch 2 as the clear leader, even before its official release. Read on for details!

Dominating the Market: 80 Million Units by 2028

Image from NintendoDFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, forecasts Nintendo as the console market leader, with the Switch 2 significantly outpacing competitors Microsoft and Sony. This advantage stems from an anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and a relative lack of immediate competition. Sales projections are impressive: 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo may face manufacturing challenges meeting this anticipated demand.

Image from Mario official Nintendo siteWhile Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring surprise releases) is expected to solidify its market dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, highlighting a potential strong showing for a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's Switch is already a massive success. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that the Switch's US lifetime sales have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2, now ranking second all-time in the US behind only the Nintendo DS. This is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

Industry Growth on the Horizon

DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the video game industry, projecting healthy growth through the end of the decade after a recent slump. 2025 is anticipated as a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, reigniting consumer interest and spending.

The gaming audience is also expanding, projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" with portable systems broadens accessibility, while esports and gaming influencers further drive hardware sales across PCs and consoles.